phillips4的部落格

Last week, CNBC reporter, Mari Bartiromo was reasonably dismayed by the style Don Tomnitz, CEO DR Horton, in use in describing the land of the real estate market: "I don't poorness to be too worldly here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar period of time.'' I deduce that Maria over reacted a minuscule. Since, when did ingestion change state specified a bad word? It is patently not on my record of disallowed iv epistle words, but I do fend off using it say brood. They have decent issues to fixation active minus having to tell apart concerning unimpeachable and insufficient four missive speech.

Another word that I waste product to use say kids is inferior. It has six letters, but in my journal it is exactly up within next to the utmost tasteless 4 communication ones especially when describing the material material possession marketplace. Maybe this is a short time ago a strangeness of mine, since it didn't disorder Maria at all when Robert Toll, CEO Toll Brothers, suggested that the definite holding souk had bottomed. "I would guess, and that's all it is, it would be other 4 or cardinal months up to that time you last of all blush off inventory in best of the markets."

So, who genuinely nearly new tasteless language? Has the actual holding marketplace bottomed? Excuse me. Has the valid holding activity reached its worst point? Each CEO has cardinal role witnesses. Let's see who has the stronger luggage.

MD: Your honor, I would similar to phone Mr. Toll's prime informant - Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Good morning Mr. Greenspan. Do you brand stand a swear word?

Greenspan: "While, yes, it is prospective we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, peak forecasters are not fashioning that verdict and so are projected send into 2008 ... near many slowdown."

MD: No, I propose in comment to the concrete material possession market.

Greenspan: "We are now symptomless into the muscle contraction fundamental quantity and so far we have not had any major, notable upshot personal effects on the American discount from the muscle contraction in suburban."

MD: Thank you, Mr. Greenspan. Your honor, I would suchlike to name Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Mr. Bernanke what's your place on the foundation word?

Bernanke: "There are several indications that inflation pressures are commencement to fail to recognize. The time unit background are noisy, however, and it will subsequently be whatsoever clip up to that time we can be confident that inexplicit economic process is analgesic as expected." Core economic process is "somewhat overhead."

MD: Somewhat elevated! When was the closing occurrence you put gas in your car? College tuition, medical premiums, silage prices are done the roof! Oh, I forgot those items are not included in the center rate. Back to the probe at mitt - How about Toll stating that the physical property activity has bottomed? What's your task on that?

Bernanke: I am sighted "some conditional signs of stabilization" in the structure activity." Problems in the unadulterated material possession sector "do not seem to have spilled complete to any carrying great weight dimension to other sectors of the cutback." "Overall, the US reduction seems apparent to increase at a clement pace this period and next, near lump rise slightly as the lug from built-up diminishes."

MD: Thank you Mr. Bernanke.

Bernanke: It may be "some time until that time we can be upbeat that implicit economic process is lenitive as anticipated."

MD: Stop, please, break with the inflation yak. Mr. Larry Kudlow, CNBC Economics Reporter - would you satisfy takings the stand?

MD: Mr. Kudlow could you substantiate Mr. Toll's position?

Kudlow: "The great American client has been documentary off so lots modern times in the finishing small indefinite amount of years, lately suchlike the snooze of the system. But he/she is viable and motility. Another extreme saga ne'er told."

MD: Mr. Kudlow several assume that you yield your hope to immoderation. Do you take back making the successive quote? "I guess family should wait in for the protracted run and be rosy because free-market capitalist economy is the select few way to compose lavishness and economic condition."

Kudlow: Yes, that sounds resembling one of my quotes.

MD: Do you evoke when you ready-made that quote?

Kudlow: I have aforementioned same statements many modern times. I'm not definite scientifically when that one was made.

MD: Mr. Kudlow that was in September 1929. One time period since the excellent devaluation started. No added questions.

Judge: Mr. Toll, I essential recognize that I am fairly affected with the esteem of your witnesses. However, all of their proof is instead "touchy-feely." Mr. Tomnitz, I optimism that your witnesses have more objective confirmation.

MD: Your laurels the original verbalizer is Mr. Ara Hovnanian, CEO Hovnanian Enterprises. Mr. Hovnanian is it sincere that your company's first-quarter loss was $57.3 million, or 91 cents per share, for the 3 months concluded Jan. 3?

Hovnanian: Yes.

MD: Is it apodeictic that your revenues reduced by 8.8% to $1.2 billion, as a effect of declines in the number of homes delivered and net contracts?

Hovnanian: Yes.

MD: Is it so that your corporation cut its 2007 net income reference point to between $1.10 and $1.50 per share, from a erstwhile reference of $1.50 to $2 per share?

Hovnanian: Yes.

MD: Mr. Hovnanian, is it right that your guests and remaining builders have been content cost incentives, such as best kitchens or opposite bread and butter to dislodge inventory? If this is correct and you are motionless threatening guidance - would I be precise in expression that regulars are not responding to incentives?

Hovnanian: Enough at one time. "It's not feat worse, and it is bumper-to-bumper but sure." "Once the living accommodations marketplace bottoms out - we are not expecting a speedy seizure."

MD: Thank You, Mr. Hovnanian. Dr. Nouriel Roubini, noted Economist, would you humour return the bracket. Dr. Roubini the subprime meltdown, that we are right now experiencing, would it happen at the top or bottom of market?

Roubini: "Words such as as "catastrophic", "imploding", "scary" and such future from marketplace participants cited by the WSJ are assessment brooding. One could of course of study bring more than standing on ceremony data and analytics to turn out this thoughtful acknowledgment rustle in the subprime section of the mortgage market: umteen investing plant scientist - GS, JPM, MS, Citi - are now doing that in their research this week."

MD: S-t. Excuse me your laurels.

Roubini: "But I would protest that the quotations preceding from the WSJ - as healthy as Mr. Tomnitz of DR Horton announcement this hebdomad that lodging will "suck" every period of time of calendar 2007 - should be ample to prove the being of a capital recognition noise to any sensible somebody who follows the simpler "smell test" or "duck test" or "obscenity test" (to paraphrase Justice Stewart account) to be an argument: "if it walks, quacks, ducks, looks and stinks approaching a lousy anseriform bird it is a fusty duck". And subprime looks and stinks in every way and structure like a crappy anseriform bird."

MD: D-n. No more questions your honour. Next is Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital. Mr. Schiff, I am inactive pulsation a teensy-weensy from Dr. Roubini's testimony. Can you propose us a lilliputian comfort?

Schiff: "The in progress discipline decline flowering in the sub-prime disposition sector provides a apposite trailer as to what will crop up to the entire credit-financed ripple economy when the funding dries up. Contrary to the selfish expressive style of Wall Street and built-up commercial enterprise shills, the full security interest plane figure is not insulated from sub- prime. In fact, sub-prime is fair the tip of the recognition iceberg. Beneath the face lie kindred difficulties in Alt-A and first loans, where on earth borrowers as well relied on adjustable rate mortgages to acquisition over-priced homes that they could not other expend."

Schiff: "With the sub-prime activity drying up, furthermost first-time quarters buyers will be powerless to buy. Without those 'starter-home" buyers, the trade-up buyers (most of whom have the gift to formulate down-payments and are hence well thought out "prime borrowers") will be unable to go their existing homes, and hence unable to trade up. This brings thrown the entire edifice of card game. Home prices must collapse, moving all homeowners, heedless of their thanks ratings."

MD: Thank you, Mr. Schiff. Your honor, I would like-minded to ring for a recess.

Judge: There is no demand for a abeyance. I have ready-made my perspicacity. Dr. Roubini and Mr. Schiff, you have anxious the h- out of me. I probability that ethnic group are attentive to you, but enchant ne'er come with into my court over again.

It is measurable to me that we are nowhere neighbor the lower and that Mr. Tomnitz was correct in stating that the construction bazaar sucks.